Explaining Economics one 6 Pack at a time.


  • Category Archives Random Thoughts for the Day
  • Cult of Personality

    Posted on by drinker

    Why is the left (as in the political spectrum) so infatuated with “cults of personality”.  Even Castro at 82 years old is still shown to be vibrant in his jogging suit.   Although the only thing I can think of is a Saprano with bad hair.  I can sort of understand a little bit of the cult of personality for Obama.  I don’t agree with it, I can only understand it.

     

    When was the last time a leader with cult of personality status said “With me in office, you will be free to fix it your damn self”. They haven’t for a very long time.  The cult of personality leader usually says something along the lines of “With me in office, I will fix it for you”.  How do you expect to get anywhere telling people that you will do less for them then the next guy?  It is a wonder that any real conservative gets elected but that’s another post entirely.

     

    In the book Don’t Think of an Elephant! by George Lakoff (I will put it on my book list soon) he comes up with a theory on why people have liberal or conservative view points.  And I have to agree with him despite being on the other political isle.  Liberals tend to come from strong maternal role households or those that value nurturing.  Conservatives tend to come from strong paternal role households or those that value self reliance.  Think of it this way.  Your mom would tend to the scraped knee while your father would “tell you get up and stop crying”.  Using that understanding it becomes very easy to understand why the left values cults of personality so much.  These leaders are mommy promising to fix stuff for them. 

     

    I don’t know about you but I left my house and parents so I could make my own decisions.  I did not exchange a personal relationship with my real mother for an impersonal relationship with a government acting like a mother.

     


  • Savers are bad and Savers are good

    Posted on by drinker

    At first I thought this article about savers had to be a joke.  But alas it is real.

     

    Someone should really take this person’s keyboard away before they hurt someone.  I guess he/she works from home.  After all how do you get to work when you have cart in front of the horse.

     

    For those of you that think this is a good idea, remember that banks lend out money that people save.  Basically the interest a person earns on the money they keep in the bank account is their share of the interest the bank made in loaning it out. If there are no savers, there is no money to lend out.  We have been playing this juggling act of using leveraged assets to buy more assets and then leverage the total again, for too long. 

     

    There is nothing wrong with leverage itself.  It actually enables our economy to function.  It allows most of the successful economies to function. Leverage allows people to take a risk and be rewarded.  But what we have going on now is that the leverage was out of control and that everyone was so leveraged the whole system threatens to fail.

     

    The situation we have is like an alcoholic who functions by taking a shot of whiskey in the morning, we are making our situation worse.  We have to go through the hang over from over consumption. 

     

    The government is going to have to spend money to get things moving but these things have to be done in such a way that the money that is spent is spent on things to enable more private commerce.  I hope the government spends money on new roads, bridges, power distribution, and other infrastructure work.  But we all know what is going to happen.  Think Boston Big Dig but with more money. 

     

    As for the people saving their money and not spending it, well that is just the way things happen.  People afraid that they will lose their jobs try to save money. The problem is not the saving people.  Provided they are not saving their money by putting it under their mattress, which is the only way money is truly lost to non-circulation.  The problem is that banks are not lending money at all.  Unfortunately they are not lending to worthwhile companies either.  Perhaps if enough people put enough money in the bank it will be able to de-leverage it self out of bad situation.

     

    What we need is moderation.  Some spending, not like we have seen, but we also need savers.  Some people have to get burned and some have to be rewarded.  After-all it is those people who saved their money are the same ones who we depend on to get a loan when we need it.


  • Economic Blackholes

    Posted on by drinker

    If you are expecting something about throwing our money down the blackhole of failed investment banks and such I am sure there are plenty of other posts like that.  This one is different as I am going into the “too big to fail” theory and how it is similiar to the physics of blackholes.  The short version of this is that when companies or organizations get too big the sheer mass of them failing pulls so many other companies with them that the standard rule of markets breakdown.

    In physics blackholes start breaking traditional rules of physics.  Rational explantions of what goes on in the world simply do not apply (yes I know about how they work but try explaining it to a regular non-phd holding person and all they here “weird stuff happens).  This happens because they become some ackin to there own self-fulling prophecy.  Each piece of mass they pull in allows them to pull in more mass.  Something similiar has happened in our economy except instead of physics breaking down, the free market breaks down.

     Under normal cercumstances a company that has failed as miserably as those in todays market would just be allowed go into bankruptcy and either recover or close it’s doors.  In smaller companies this might cause a few other companies to fail that normally would not but nothing too severe (unless you are the one who lost their job).  What made this different is that many of these investment banks have swallowed each other up over the years that these massive institutions would essentially cause an economic blackhole by their collapse.  They would suck all those nearby into their collapsing mass.  The resulting devastation would end much of the economic progress people have made through their life. 

    Do I like it. No.  I freaking hate that these miserable failures have to be saved.  I just wished that these damn mergers that the FCC authorized over the past 30 odd years may have been better scrutinized.  That way a bunch of little failures could occur.  We could take our medicine and recognize that that way of doing business does not work.  Those CEO’s and upper excutives can face financial ruin for dumb decisions and other savier business leaders could prosper.  Instead we reward failure.


  • A Different View of Taxes

    Posted on by drinker

    Living in the northeast super city corridor (Washington DC to Boston Mass) I am used to reading about all the different taxes that get thrown around.  From Philadelphia city wage tax to 12 dollar cigarettes in New York City the region in very tax happy in general.  I am not against taxes.  I think we need them for many community based projects that the private sector simply won’t do or can’t do for a price people are willing to pay.  That being said I hate taxes that are counter productive, like Philadelphia wage tax, or just wasteful like cigarette taxes that go to programs that will be around after everyone finally quits smoking.

     

    My personal and what has been historically accurate view is that government is the most wasteful organization to dump money into.  To list the sheer amount of waste that goes on is too much for a blog read by about 4 people.  Similar things happen in the private sector also but their (used to be at least) consequences to this, like losing your money.  Current bail-out excluded, government usually gets more money for failure then success.  In the government if you run your department more efficiently, thereby reducing your budget, you do not receive a bonus; instead you lose power as some other department takes your budget surplus. 

     

    I have tried to sell the idea of taxes as the purchase price of government services for an area.  So instead of looking at taxes as something that is just taken from you, think of it as the purchase price for government services.  Perhaps if we looked at government more like we look at say Walmart, Target, or Best Buy perhaps we can reward those governments that give us the best bang for the buck. 

     

    Let’s take Philadelphia wage taxes.  Back in the fifties or sixties (I can’t be bothered to look it up) they put this temporary tax on income to build something or other. Back then our economy was based around manufacturing and large labor forces.  So if you wanted access to large labor pools you had to be in the city.  The seventies and eighties changed the standard manufacturing economy (for better or worse).  What replaced it was a service oriented economy and smaller work forces.  Without the need for access to large labor forces companies moved out to the suburbs to avoid the wage taxes (not to mention the oppressive business taxes).

     

    This brings me to the conclusion that when you offer less for the money you have to lower your prices.  This is what happened to Philadelphia, except that instead of lowering their prices to service more customers (residents and businesses) they kept them at the same high rate or only marginally lowered them. The large labor force offered by Philadelphia did not matter, nor did Philadelphia have name recognition like New York City (which is why New York City can run the tax system they do).  The mass exodus of highly paid people and service based businesses soon moved to the suburbs. This began to take its toll on the city. 

     

    I have worked in Philadelphia many times both in the out skirts and center city region.  What I can honestly say is that I have no idea where the wage tax went.  Simple things were not done.  Trash is piled in corners on the streets, abandoned cars on major streets are ignored and just general disrepair is rampant.  Certain portions of the city were great like center city or old city, while other portions just needed general “take care of this crap” to be great.  Of course other areas would require a Marine escort, but we can pretend they are not there like the rest of city hall currently does.   This leads me to the fact that what I get by working in the city or god-forbid starting a business (even more frustrating) in the city is not worth the price paid to do it. 


  • Let them eat Heroin

    Posted on by drinker

    I really don’t know what to do about drugs, mainly because I think us as a species desire a way to alter our perception of the world.  I definitely don’t think giving drugs out like candy is the answer though.

     

    I wonder how many people are going to continue their self-destructive behavior because the risk of the behavior has been reduced.  Some of the risks of heroin are of course disease from dirty needles, improper use of the needles, poor quality drugs, robbery, rape, etc. the list goes on.  It is not that I don’t care about these people; it’s that I believe this “make a bad behavior safer” only encourages more of the behavior.  Reduce the cost of something and you will increase the demand of it.  You can’t get away from it.

     

    I tend to be a libertarian for most things.  If it is between consenting adults have fun, don’t ask me to subsidize it unless it benefits me (like a married couple having kids).  But if said action requires you to get public assistance then I care about it. Go beat each other with rotten salami all you want, but your insurance pays for it, not mine.  Want to go home and smoke pot, fine just make sure you get up and go to work the next day. 

     

    If you start taking money from me though, that’s when I get all “angry dad” on your ass.  The above mentioned program will eventually lead to the local government taking a similar approach.  This in turn leads to my money being spent on this type of crap.  What is needed is for these people to stop doing bad behavior, not making the behavior safer.  It just destroys the risk to reward ratio and that is what blew-up our banking system. Who knows maybe in a moment of clarity one of these addicts will realize that the risks of doing heroin does not equal the reward, and then they go and get help.


  • Millions, Billions, Trillions

    Posted on by drinker

    I scratch my head at the numbers that are casually just thrown around in the financial crisis.  The numbers are so large they are essentially meaningless.  We have reached the point that no-one can risk stopping the game.  We have feed the monster so much debt it is now so big we can not anger it by not feeding it.  

     

    We basically have an 800ton gorilla that wants its Twinkies.  Unfortunately it also thinks we taste like Twinkies.  At this point we are at the stage that everyone involved is absolutely screwed.  I have yet to see a winner in this whole mess.  Who is making money on this?  Real Estate? Commodities? Military Industrial Complex? Tech Stocks?  I can’t seem to find who is going to make money on this.

     In way that may be good since nobody is looking to get paid.  Just about everyone seems to be losing. I know the following is tongue in cheek, but perhaps we should just reboot.  Just pretend all of this did not happen.  A Re-Do like playing football when you were a kid and the ball hit a power-line or tree.

    Part of me feels that all the bail-outs are nothing more then rearranging the chairs on the titanic.  Or maybe it is just a way for some very rich fat-cats to grab as much money as possible before the ship finally sinks.  Some how I feel the promises of the fat-cats of “We need to take the life boats to go find help” is going leave me in the icy waters. 

     Where is global warming when you need it.


  • Socialism in Practice

    Posted on by drinker

    If you ever wanted to do a little experiment to figure out why socialism fails do the following.

     

    Get a little lunch group together.  Preferably with a jerk or two.  The second requirement should not be too hard to do, as most people are jerks.  Hopefully you have a group of about 8 people or more. Go to lunch and get one bill.  At the end of the meal just split the tip and bill 8 ways (or how ever many people are in the group). Do not account for who got what.  Just split it evenly.  Note who got what and how much each person spent individually.  Especially note what the experimental jerks ordered.

     

    Do the same lunch again next week.  At the end of the meal again check what people ordered.  The per person expense should have increased.  If not keep repeating for a few more weeks.  It will eventually increase (before the restaurant raises prices itself). 

     

    It should not take a genius to figure out what is going on.  The first few people will see a real benefit to their bottom line by scamming the system, but soon the whole group will be recklessly ordering food.  This my fellow readers is the primary reason that socialism fails.  People figure out the game and very soon they begin to exploit it. Soon everyone is scamming the system and it collapses under its own weight. 

     

    Good luck and there is never a free lunch.  Occasionally government subsidies but it’s never free.


  • Democrats drive imports

    Posted on by drinker

    This in no way an official poll by any means.  But I thought it ironic that while listening to the news talk about Obama and Pelosi fighting for a bail out of the Big 3.  I saw three cars with Obama 08 bumper stickers.  Two Toyotas and a Honda.

    I am not one of those people that think you should buy american no matter what.  I just believe you should keep an open mind and buy on value.  But when you do that understand what that decision means.  Choosing one product over the other will cause one to lose money and possibly go out of business. 

    In the meantime I take advantage of the fact that the perception of American cars is so bad.  I was able to walk away with a cadilliac for 10K less then an equivalent lexus.  And that price difference included an extended warrenty.  If I was purchasing in cash I could have put close to 10K into a CD and just waited for the breakdown to occur.  For 10K I could replace the whole drivetrain.  If my past experience is any indication I should get my money out of it. 

    Keep an open mind about domestics, you may be able to save us 25 Billion.

    The Top five on the JD Powers survey were

    1. Lexus
    2. Mercury
    3. Caddillac
    4. Toyota
    5. Acura

  • Cool as Ice

    Posted on by drinker

    What a freaking joke.  I can’t believe that every other actor’s agents besides vanilla ice allowed them to make this movie. 

    Ok I have wasted enough time watching this crap movie.  But it really does make you appreciate the test pattern.


  • The 3000 Dollar paperweight weekend

    So my alienware computer is now a paper weight in addition I have a feeling my 160gb Ipod is also a paper weight.  So 2600 plus 400 is 3000 thrown down the toilet. 

     I guess I should have stuck with my philosophy on computers get just what you need and throw it out in 3 years when nothing will run on it.  But I thought that for once I will go and get something really really nice.  I play games a lot and most are of the strategy variety and do not really push the graphics too much so I figured that if get something really good now if should last me about 5 years.  In which case the investment would have paid off. Well the first time I really spend money on a piece of electronics it dies in two years.  I did not buy the extended warrenty since I never really had hardware problems that either did not show up in the first year or did not give me trouble till I was ready to replace the thing anyway. 

     So the great alienware turns out to be an overheating piece of junk.  Sure it was able to max out every game I had but now it’s a paper weight because the mother board is shot.  I would buy another motherboard and replace it (it’s a laptop) but these bastards don’t sell them to the regular public.  I have to send it in.   So I am out like 500 bucks and a computer for a month.  And if their message board is any indication of quality of work it will happen again or they will mis-diagnosis the problem.

     As for the ipod I am not sure what is wrong.  I tried to sync it up after a month of not syncing it up and it just froze.  The screen is on but nothing happens.  Will wonders never cease.  And yes I played with the lock and unlock button.  But wonderful apple does not allow anyone to have access to a failsafe on/off button so that is all I can do.

     So I guess I could sell designer Paper Weights on Ebay. 



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